Douglas H. Paal

U.S. President Barack Obama will host China's President Xi Jinping for a special bilateral meeting on March 31. The encounter will be special because it is the only scheduled bilateral meeting of heads of state during the upcoming U.S.-hosted Nuclear Security Summit of many nations, including U.S. allies. This signifies at once the general and increasing importance of relations between Washington and Beijing, but also the specific need to address rising tensions between the two nations. The prime focus will be on the South China Sea, although other issues should be touched on.

Chinese President Xi Jinping is a man in a hurry, presiding over a system that normally resists rapid change. The latest example is a rushed and massive reorganization and slimming of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), announced on September 3 and expected to be inaugurated, though not completed, as fast as by January 1, 2016. Ambitions such as this one for the PLA may be part of what lies behind the extraordinary tactical readjustments of Chinese foreign policy over the past year. After two major conferences on Chinese foreign policy presided over by Xi in 2013 and 2014, China's post-Olympic, post-global financial crisis period of assertiveness toward its neighbors and the United States has morphed since last autumn into fence mending and economic courtship. Some might call it a tactical retreat. I call it a counterbalance to the American rebalance; that is, Beijing's efforts to reduce opportunities for the U.S. to build influence on China's periphery.

If Americans focus on Chinese activities in the South China Sea, cyberspace, and the currency markets during the upcoming state visit of President Xi Jinping to the United States, they will be mistaking the urgent for the important. This summit should be about what is important: the health of the global economy and successful management of the inevitable frictions between the two largest economies.

On or shortly after June 16, the Hong Kong authorities are expected to submit a package of electoral reforms to the special administrative region’s representative body, the Legislative Council (LegCo), that includes a proposal for implementing universal suffrage in the former colony for the first time. Despite the obvious attraction this should present to democratic activists in LegCo, it appears headed for defeat because of the restrictive terms and conditions imposed on the process by Hong Kong’s sovereign, the People’s Republic of China. A seemingly irresistible force, the expectation of democratic representation, has met an immovable object: China’s determination to put limits on the process. Read more at: http://carnegieendowment.org/2015/06/11/why-hong-kong-s-challenges-matter/i9qq

Last month 57 nations applied to become founding members of China’s newest creation: the Beijing-based Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). Ostensibly designed to help finance projects that sate Asia’s expanding appetite for infrastructure, the AIIB has left Washington struggling over how to respond. Some applaud China for assuming greater international responsibility and wielding soft power to aid Asia’s growth. Some oppose the move as undermining the U.S.-led economic order and using aid as a tool to advance China’s strategic agenda.

After more than a year of increasingly scratchy relations between the United States and China, Presidents Barack Obama and Xi Jinping managed to strike a markedly improved tone and announce some accomplishments this week. Meeting in formal and informal settings on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Economic Forum (APEC) leaders meeting in Beijing, the two acknowledged the need to manage inevitable differences and frictions while offering inclusive opportunities for future cooperation. Whether this was a tactical adjustment for the purposes of this meeting –giving prestige to Xi and his government as host, or salving the political wounds of a recently humbled Obama – or something more lasting, will be tested in the coming months. Insider expectations are tending toward the tactical, if not cynical. Read more at: http://carnegieendowment.org/2014/11/14/xi-obama-meeting-u.s.-china-relations-off-to-more-promising-start/huvq

The United States and South Korea are facing new and increasingly dangerous dynamics on the Korean Peninsula. The situation in North Korea underwent an enormous qualitative change over the past three months that heightens the urgency of a potential crisis for the North and could even signal the regime's eventual undoing.

U.S. President Barack Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping will sit down for an informal summit in California in June-the first time in over forty years that the leaders of two such consequential and different powers have met for a "blue sky" discussion. They should express principles to guide future cooperation and lay the foundation for a practical yet visionary way forward.

As the United States enters a gradual period of recovery from the financial crisis and China's economic future seems fraught with danger, America still has the ability to serve as a source of stability for the Asia-Pacific region.