Hui Zhang

Senior Research Associate, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

Hui Zhang is a Senior Research Associate at the Project on Managing the Atom in the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government. Hui Zhang is leading a research initiative on China's nuclear policies for the Project on Managing the Atom in the Kennedy School of Government. His researches include verification techniques of nuclear arms control, the control of fissile material, nuclear terrorism, China's nuclear policy, nuclear safeguards and non-proliferation, policy of nuclear fuel cycle and reprocessing. Before coming to the Kennedy School in September 1999, he was a post-doctoral fellow at the Center for Energy and Environmental Studies, Princeton University from 1997-1999, and in 1998-1999, he received a post-doctoral fellowship from the Social Science Research Council, a MacArthur Foundation program on International Peace and Security. From 2002-2003, he received a grant for Research and Writing from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. Hui Zhang received his Ph.D. in nuclear physics in Beijing in 1996. Dr. Zhang is the author of several technical reports and book chapters, and dozens of articles in academic journals and the print media including Science and Global Security, Arms Control Today, Bulletin of Atomic Scientist, Disarmament Diplomacy, Disarmament Forum, the Non-proliferation Review, Washington Quarterly, Journal of Nuclear Materials Management , INESAP, and China Security. Dr. Zhang gives many oral presentations and talks in international conferences and organizations.

Articles by Hui Zhang

The most significant achievement to emerge from the 2014 Nuclear Security Summit was a pledge by 35 countries to observe the terms of a joint agreement, known as Strengthening Nuclear Security Implementation. This document committed the signatories to incorporate the principles and guidelines of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) regarding nuclear security into their national laws, and to allow teams of international experts to periodically evaluate their security procedures. Promoted strongly by the chairs of all three nuclear summits-the United States, South Korea, and the Netherlands- the 2014 initiative is an important step towards creating a robust global security system designed to prevent nuclear materials from falling into the hands of terrorists.

Under the guiding principles of its nuclear policy - maintaining a minimum deterrent, asserting a no-first-use pledge, and avoiding a nuclear arms race - China is modernizing its nuclear forces to assure a limited, reliable, and effective counterattack capability that will deter a first nuclear strike. China's nuclear modernization has been focusing on the quality rather than the quantity of its nuclear forces for the past three decades. There is no convincing evidence the country has expanded its arsenal significantly. Based on the Chinese government's statements about its nuclear modernization efforts and available public information, the author estimates that China has a total inventory of approximately 170 nuclear warheads. This estimate is significantly lower than previous appraisals. China could well have the smallest arsenal of nuclear weapons among the five original nuclear weapons states. One factor that could cause China to increase the size of its nuclear arsenal is a US deployment of additional or more effective missile defenses.