Articles by Hui Zhang
The most significant achievement to emerge from the 2014 Nuclear Security Summit was a pledge by 35 countries to observe the terms of a joint agreement, known as Strengthening Nuclear Security Implementation. This document committed the signatories to incorporate the principles and guidelines of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) regarding nuclear security into their national laws, and to allow teams of international experts to periodically evaluate their security procedures. Promoted strongly by the chairs of all three nuclear summits-the United States, South Korea, and the Netherlands- the 2014 initiative is an important step towards creating a robust global security system designed to prevent nuclear materials from falling into the hands of terrorists.
Under the guiding principles of its nuclear policy - maintaining a minimum deterrent, asserting a no-first-use pledge, and avoiding a nuclear arms race - China is modernizing its nuclear forces to assure a limited, reliable, and effective counterattack capability that will deter a first nuclear strike. China's nuclear modernization has been focusing on the quality rather than the quantity of its nuclear forces for the past three decades. There is no convincing evidence the country has expanded its arsenal significantly. Based on the Chinese government's statements about its nuclear modernization efforts and available public information, the author estimates that China has a total inventory of approximately 170 nuclear warheads. This estimate is significantly lower than previous appraisals. China could well have the smallest arsenal of nuclear weapons among the five original nuclear weapons states. One factor that could cause China to increase the size of its nuclear arsenal is a US deployment of additional or more effective missile defenses.