Cheng Li

I was very skeptical about last September's US-China "agreement" in which China pledged that it would not "conduct or knowingly support cyber-enabled theft of intellectual property, including trade secrets or other confidential business information, with the intent of providing competitive advantages to companies or commercial sectors." President Obama seemed skeptical too. During the press conference with China's President Xi that announced the cyber agreement, Obama said: "What I've said to President Xi and what I say to the American people is the question now is, are words followed by actions. And we will be watching carefully to make an assessment as to whether progress has been made in this area."

President Xi has a good chance to make a convincing case that the U.S. and China need each other," Li Cheng, director of the John L. Thornton China Center at the U.S. think tank Brookings Institution, told Xinhua in an interview. "There is no other choice, except to move forward for cooperation in multiple areas." There are many areas, including the global economy, climate change, cyber security, anti-terrorism and nuclear non-proliferation, in which China and the United States should cooperate and play a positive role, Li said.

Analysts of the Chinese leadership are mistaken to characterize President Xi Jinping in a simplistic, stagnant, and one-dimensional way. Prior to Xi’s ascent to the top leadership in the fall of 2012, many overseas China analysts described this new party boss as “a weak leader,” “a consensus builder,” a hardcore conservative, “a closet liberal” or even “China’s Gorbachev.” They believed that major changes could not be expected during Xi’s first term because of the great amount of time that he would need to consolidate his power.

From China's perspective, its strategic rethinking should follow the idea developed by the late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping in the 1970-80s. Deng believed that peace and development are the two major themes of the contemporary world. Should Beijing continue to adhere to this strategic judgment given the rapidly changing world situation? The answer to this question also encompasses whether conflict between China and the United States is inevitable and how to avoid such conflict. China also needs to rethink whether its priority is to resolve its current domestic problems or focus more on international issues.

Few words are more frequently mentioned in the context of China’s economic reform agenda than “rebalancing”. What will a rebalanced Chinese economy look like? Has the Chinese leadership come to grips with sources of resistance to change? What is the likely balance and sequencing of local government, banking, exchange rate, and environmental and judicial reform?

The continuing consolidation of power has been the most noticeable trend under the leadership of President Xi Jinping since the 18th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in November 2012. Undoubtedly, a key component in this strengthening of both Xi’s personal power and his new administration’s authority has centered on the military domain. Xi has gone about the consolidation process through several important political and tactical moves, including the purges of the two highest-ranking generals under the previous administration on corruption and other charges; the arrest of over 40 senior military officers on various charges of wrongdoing; large-scale reshuffling of generals between regions, departments, and services; ongoing efforts to reform the People's Liberation Army structure and operations; and, most importantly, the rapid promotion of “young guards” (少壮派) in the Chinese military.

The seventh meeting of the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue—or S&ED—takes place June 23 to 24 in Washington, D.C., with Secretary of State John Kerry and Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew representing the United States, and Vice Premier Wang Yang and State Councilor Yang Jiechi representing China. Since 2009, the S&ED has offered a platform for both countries to address bilateral, regional, and global challenges and opportunities. Brookings John L. Thornton China Center scholars Cheng Li, Richard Bush, David Dollar, and Daniel Wright offer insight into this significant meeting.

After several years of drift and decline, relations between China and the United States ended 2014 in a modestly improved condition. The presidential summit in Beijing in November not only produced several important and tangible accomplishments, but more importantly it stabilized the relationship, and created a more positive atmosphere. The recently concluded Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade further enhanced the bilateral relationship

Nixon's visit to China and the U.S.-China rapprochement was historically important in the context of the Cold War. It marginalized the Soviet Union, dramatically changed the global political and strategic landscape, and one could argue that it was not Ronald Reagan that ended the Cold War but rather Nixon and Henry Kissinger's visit to China. Since rapprochement and the establishment of formal diplomatic relations between China and the United States in 1979, there have been some important changes such as China's emergence as a major power and the second largest economy in the world.

I have just returned from several days in Beijing, where I joined seven other Brookings colleagues in a series of meetings with academics, entrepreneurs and senior government officials for conversations about the state of U.S.-China relations. Nearly all of our conversations addressed the sharp and surprising downward turn that the bilateral relationship has taken in recent months, with mounting tensions spanning a wide range of issues from maritime disputes to cyber security.

The June 2013 Sunnylands meeting between Presidents Xi Jinping and Barack Obama demonstrated the increasing importance that both leaders attach to a close and constructive relationship between the United States and China. Both leaders increasingly view the bilateral relationship in regional and global terms. But as both countries prepare for high level bilateral talks in the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue, they also confront significant regional and global tensions across a wide range of issues from maritime disputes in Asia to the challenges posed to the international system by the crisis in Ukraine. How has the new type of bilateral relationship proposed at Sunnylands been put into practice, and what does it mean for the rest of the region?

The idea of the Cold War is a conception. It depends on how you look at that, how much you believe that. Certainly the Cold War was real during the 1960s, 70s, etc. But now it's very problematic because by definition the Cold War is confrontation of two blocks on ideological and military fronts. You can say on the military front, there is stlll some tension between countries like China and the United States. But ideologically I don't see that China has that ideology [of] deliberately trying to challenge the United States. But most importantly, during the Cold War, there's no global economy. The Soviet block was not part of the global economy. But now we see a really globalized economy. China is part of that. And if [in] the United States the economy is not doing well, China also suffers. And vice versa. So this tells us we're really in a new era, in a new world.