January 25, 2016
Changes and prospects for the structure of regional stability in East Asia: A U.S. perspective

by Jonathan D. Pollack

Early 2016 is an uneasy and potentially disquieting time in East Asia and in international politics as a whole. A pronounced slowing of economic growth across much of the globe (the United States is among the few exceptions); appreciably heightened geopolitical rivalry in locations of great importance to major as well as middle powers; the increased prevalence of nativism and forms of anti-foreign nationalism in numerous industrial democracies; acute upheaval and internal conflict across the Middle East and Southwest Asia, with attendant consequences for nearby regions (most notably a severe refugee crisis in Europe); and North Korea's fourth nuclear weapons test all suggest the erosion or outright breakdown of international order functioning since the end of the Cold War and the emergence of globalization as a major economic force. The U.S. presidential election is an additional and very troubling manifestation of global uncertainty: numerous candidates openly advocate policies that would represent an abdication of America's global leadership role and a retreat into narrow nationalism.

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