September 29, 2015
Adjusting China's Growth Path

by Yukon Huang

The prolonged slowdown in China's economy has generated a fierce debate about whether the country needs a new "growth model." All economies, however, are guided by the same growth model developed decades ago by Nobel Prize winner Robert Solow showing that expansion depends on growth of investment and labor along with productivity. These principles have not changed, but some adjustments are now required in the path China is taking. Some observers have called for a more consumption-driven growth process and others see innovation as the solution, but neither approach actually meets current needs. Since the global financial crisis, a widely shared view is that Beijing should shift to a more consumption-driven growth path and reduce its dependence on investment. Yet the principles of growth theory tell us that consumption is not part of the equation. Consumption is the result of growth. It does not drive growth. Consumption in China has been increasing at a globally unmatched 10 percent annually for a decade and is likely to moderate as GDP growth declines rather than increases.

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