The impressive strength of Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in recent local elections has caused a surge of speculation in both East Asia and the United States about whether the Taiwan issue might become the latest source of tension in China-U.S. relations. There is no question that the election results signaled a dramatic repudiation of President Ma Ying-jeou and the governing Kuomintang Party (KMT). There were multiple reasons for the KMT’s electoral debacle, including the rise of the youth-oriented “Sunflower” reformist movement and its potent complaints about a corrupt, unresponsive political system.

Much of the public’s rebellion, though, also explicitly reflected growing dissatisfaction with Ma’s accommodating policy toward Beijing. An early sign of trouble occurred when angry demonstrations erupted in March 2014 in response to a new trade deal between Taipei and Beijing, which opponents argued would give China far too much influence over Taiwan’s economy. Beijing is clearly worried about the implications of the recent vote. Nervous Chinese media outlets felt it necessary to warn the victorious DPP against interpreting the election results as a mandate for more hard-line positions on cross-strait issues.