Chinese leaders find themselves in a most uncomfortable position as animosity between Washington and Moscow reaches levels not seen since the Cold War. Beijing would desperately like to stay out of the diplomatic fray, but that is a difficult stance to maintain, given the important political, economic, and strategic relations that China has with both sides.

There were potential pitfalls for Beijing even before the onset of the current, dangerous spat between Russia and the West regarding the situation in Ukraine. Relations between the U.S.-led NATO bloc and the Kremlin had been deteriorating for years, punctuated by the armed conflict between Russia and Georgia in 2008. Chinese policymakers understood the Putin government's rising anger about NATO's eastward expansion to the border of the Russian Federation—especially with the incorporation of the Baltic republics. Even more provocative was the brazen lobbying by Senator John McCain and other hawkish Russophobes in the United States to expand the alliance still farther by bringing such nations as Georgia and Ukraine into the fold.