There is increasingly loud talk of China surpassing America in raw economic size within the next decade, or, adjusting for purchasing power, as soon as this year. Some of these claims are plainly inaccurate, most are misleading, and all are potentially harmful.

The claims contribute to false impressions about the future of the Asia–Pacific region, even the world as a whole. Perceptions of China's economic strength and importance underpin its global presence, from its own borders to sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. A deeper look, though, shows that the People's Republic of China (PRC) is still far smaller and poorer than the U.S. on the most important economic dimensions, so its true global weight is correspondingly limited.

While this paper focuses on economics, all U.S. policy should be founded on good information about China's relative position right now and what the future will hold. The U.S. has a huge economic advantage that should last for several generations, at least. The best strategy to compete with the PRC thus begins with getting the American house in order-and in doing so, the U.S. should absolutely not imitate the PRC. A battle with Beijing over which government can intervene in its economy more is doomed to failure and comes with ugly drawbacks that have been lost in China hype.

America can and should win the economic competition. However, it should not hope for China's failure. An economically weakening or stagnant China hurts the rest of the world. In contrast, a China on a more sustainable course benefits everyone, including the U.S.